Disaster Discourse: The Hagerty Blog

Considering Relocation as a Mitigation Strategy

 

Buyout Achieved flickr photo by Matt Green shared under a Creative Commons (BY-ND) license

高强度风暴频率的增加使得沿海生活比以往任何时候都更加危险和昂贵. Traditional “hard” coastal mitigation measures, such as seawall construction and property elevation, 无法以必要的规模或速度部署,以防止海平面上升和内陆洪水可能带来的重大不利影响. This impediment is largely due to the cost-prohibitive nature of such projects; a recent study placed the total cost of coastal defense systems at $400 billion by 2040, with one state alone, Florida, requiring $76 billion in spending. 缓解规划方面的新努力——特别是侧重于搬迁的努力——可以有效减轻气候变化造成的威胁,同时为参与者提供绝对风险减少和经济利益.

Property Acquisitions from Vulnerable Areas

Managed retreat, or the intentional, community-wide relocation of individuals from vulnerable areas, represents a paradigm shift in mitigation planning. 它强调绝对消除风险,而不是通过社区搬迁等较小的缓解战略, property demolition, conversion into open space, and subsequent preservation. Unlike buyout/acquisition programs that focus on individual properties, managed retreat looks at managing vulnerable areas collectively at the community level, often through a clustered approach. While this shift may appear to be new, 支持以社区为基础的解决方案已经在联邦政府收购和收购项目的幌子下存在了很长一段时间.

These programs have been operational since 1989, 当时,联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)首次通过“减灾赠款计划”(HMGP)自愿收购私人财产和地块。. The program was greatly expanded in 1993, 当时,国会修订了《jdb电子免费》(斯塔福德法案),将联邦分摊成本的能力从50%提高到75%,并增加了每年可提供给各州的最大资金数额. Since HMGP’s expansion, FEMA has spent more than $2.5 billion on property acquisitions and subsequent demolitions; this amount is inclusive of buyouts and acquisitions that have been sponsored by FEMA’s HMGP, 以及防灾减灾(PDM)和洪灾减灾援助(FMA)项目. In 2018 alone, more than $36 million was spent on property acquisitions. 这些资金的绝大部分用于佛罗伦萨飓风后北卡罗来纳州的买断项目, while much of the rest helped the Midwest recover after devastating tornadoes and floods.

收购成功的典型例子出现在德克萨斯州的蒙哥马利县和哈里斯县. Since 1995, more than 3,100 properties 这些买断费用超过3.42亿美元,占了当地缓解费用的41%以上. While this number appears to be incredibly high, 其根本原因是完全合乎逻辑的:这些县的土地相对便宜, and the benefits, both to the property owners and their neighbors, are readily apparent. After Hurricane Harvey, for example, more than 3,500名居民自愿向该计划提交了申请,以支持防洪和减灾工作. The transparency of the Program’s administrators – who have emphasized that buyouts do not provide immediate recovery assistance – has only helped the success of the Program.

Available Federal Funding Programs

Although FEMA supports a majority of the property acquisitions, 它们也可能由住房和城市发展部(HUD)的社区发展拨款-灾难恢复(CDBG-DR)项目赞助, where there is a programmatic emphasis on equity. 这种方法的一个有力的例子出现在纽约市史坦顿岛的奥克伍德海滩社区. Staten Island’s southeastern shores were heavily impacted during Hurricane Sandy; the topography of the Lower Bay turned Staten Island into a funnel for storm surge, leading to 14 feet of flooding in some areas. Having lived through the devastation, many residents sought state assistance made available through federal coffers to relocate, rather than rebuild.

Congress appropriated $16 billion in CDBG-DR funds to support long-term recovery efforts in New York State. These monies were used to sponsor a multitude of programs, including the NY Rising Buyout and Acquisition Program. Thus far, 该项目支持了300多块土地的获取和随后的湿地转换, costing approximately $120 million. Approximately 99 percent of Oakwood Beach residents wound up submitting applications for the buyout programs.

重要的是要考虑与斯塔顿岛有管理的撤退计划相关的财政利益, especially in the context of increasingly frequent and impactful storms. 地区规划协会的分析发现,奥克伍德海滩的居民平均可以节省5美元.7 million annually through lessened damage and relocation costs, as well as $817,000 in flood insurance premium savings. 尽管纽约市确实因为史坦顿岛项目而遭受了税收损失, the numbers were marginal and represented less than 0.01 percent of NYC’s annual budget.

Managing Outcomes

Relocation has the opportunity to help more than just coastal communities mitigate, and perhaps avoid, the devastating impacts of disasters. Take wildfires, for example. Approximately one third of the United States (US) population is located in the wildland-urban interface, an area where wildland vegetation interfaces with the local community. 由于人员和基础设施离这些现成的草料都很近,大大增加了火灾发生的可能性,因此一些人认为应该采取预防性的搬迁措施. 其他可能的实施方法包括冻土层解冻的部落社区和那些生活在极端高温地区的人.

虽然搬迁在某些情况下被证明是成功的,但它可能并不总是正确的答案. Social infrastructure and networks can begin to erode, 而且,也不能保证搬迁的受益者会搬到能提高他们长期韧性的地区. In fact, many buyout participants actually become more vulnerable than they were before a disaster when they choose to relocate within their zip code. Perhaps most importantly, 这些计划的实施速度是出了名的慢,而且需要大量的资金才能成功.

联邦应急管理局和住房和城市发展部的收购和收购项目也得到了州和地方资金机会的支持. Regardless of funding agency or source, programs often have complex compliance requirements, aggressive completion timelines, significant impact on homeowners, and financial penalty for non-compliance. As such, 重要的是利用过去的经验,用熟悉这些项目的专业知识和能力来补充当地的知识和能力. Hagerty’s experts are ready to help: check here for more information on Hazard Mitigation Assistance, or visit our Recovery home page.


Will Brown is an associate at Hagerty Consulting, Inc. supporting project delivery with the Preparedness division in NYC. 是否曾在纽约市的威胁、危害识别和风险评估(THIRA)项目工作, supporting data collection and analysis, 以及巴拿马城长期恢复规划项目的通信工作. Will recently received his M.S. in Public Policy and Management from Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College.